JAPAN PERSPECTIVE

Tokyo, May 28, 2026. Last night's events plunged Japan back into familiar anxiety: every shot fired near the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts the country's energy imports, which rely on Gulf hydrocarbons to power its steel mills, power plants, and homes. Following new US strikes on Hormozgan Province and Iran's retaliation against a US base, Brent prices surged by approximately 3.5% to near $100, according to data from Japan Today.

Iran accuses Washington of a 'gross violation' of the ceasefire in place for nearly seven weeks, while the US describes its operations as 'defensive' – targeting missile launch sites and vessels attempting to lay mines. For Tokyo, this legitimacy dispute takes a backseat to a hard reality: the Strait of Hormuz normally carries a fifth of the world's oil and LNG trade, and its obstruction since the conflict began on February 28 has already triggered an 'unprecedented' supply shock, according to economists cited by Japan Today.

President Trump stated at a cabinet meeting that he was 'not satisfied' with the proposed terms, while reaffirming that any eventual agreement must be 'perfect.' He rejected an Iranian state TV report announcing a framework agreement, calling it a 'complete fabrication' by the White House. Rubio clarified that a preliminary agreement would leave 60 days to address complex issues – Iranian nuclear program, sanctions, and frozen assets – an uncertain horizon that keeps energy markets on edge.

One aspect draws particular attention in Tokyo: the Center for Strategic and International Studies has published an analysis indicating that it will take at least three years for US military contractors to replenish stocks of Tomahawk, Patriot, and THAAD missiles consumed in this conflict. This 'window of vulnerability' for a potential confrontation in the Western Pacific fuels strategic reflections in a Japan whose alliance with Washington remains the cornerstone of national defense against Beijing.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have indicated that 25 tankers and other vessels have crossed the strait with their authorization over the past 24 hours – an ambiguous signal that could indicate a desire to maintain a negotiating lever rather than a complete closure. Tokyo, however, cannot afford to bet on this partial opening. The Ishiba government has been engaged in a months-long reflection on diversifying supplies and strengthening strategic reserves.

Trump's statement threatening Oman – a US ally and key mediator – with reprisals if it 'takes Iran's side' has also been noted with consternation in Japanese diplomatic circles, illustrating the volatility of an administration capable of undermining ongoing mediations in a single press conference.