DOMINANT ANGLE
Tokyo is measuring the impact of US inflation on its own market: the Nikkei, boosted by AI and chips, dropped at the opening on Thursday, driven by expectations of a rate hike by the Fed and the yen around 158.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
The Nikkei 225 closed the morning session on October 15 in the 64,400-point range, more than 3,200 yen below the previous day's close (Asahi Shimbun).
- 02
The US CPI for September rose 3.7% year-over-year, compared to the 3.6% expected, reigniting expectations of a rate hike by the Fed (Asahi Shimbun).
- 03
The yen was trading around 158 per dollar on October 14, with about a 22% chance of a rate hike in October, according to Reuters (News On Japan).
ANALYSIS
Tokyo, October 15, 2026. In Japan, US inflation is first reflected on the stock market board. On Thursday, October 15, the Nikkei 225 closed the morning session at over 3,200 yen below the previous day's close, at around 64,400 points, according to the Asahi Shimbun. It fell below 65,000 for the first time since September 29, or about two weeks. The index had opened at 66,880, down 863 points, before the decline accelerated.
The newspaper links this decline to the US consumer price index for September, published on Wednesday, October 14: +3.7% over one year, versus 3.6% expected by the market. Asahi notes that expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which had fallen after job creation was well below forecasts, have resumed. It summarizes: "A rate hike weighs on the economy and tends to be unfavorable to stocks."
The artificial intelligence and semiconductor sector is concentrated with sales. Advantest, SoftBank Group, and Tokyo Electron are among the most affected stocks. The Nikkei had regained the 70,000-point threshold on October 6, a first in three months, before losing nearly 3,000 points in five consecutive declining sessions until October 14.
Asahi also quotes Wataru Akiyama, from Nomura Securities. According to him, the fall in corporate bonds at the heart of the AI boom has revived fears about their financial situation. Doubts about the continuation of investments and profitability then pulled US indices down.
News On Japan had described the previous day a feverish market before the publication. The Nikkei had finished at 67,744 points, down 33. According to the article, 57.4% of Prime Market stocks declined and 38.9% progressed. The morning rebound in chips, concentrated on a few heavyweights in the index, had disappeared by the end of the session. The site cited Reuters: about 22% probability of a rate hike in October before the figures.
For Japan, it explained, US inflation matters through the dollar-yen rate, US Treasury yields, and global risk appetite. The yen was oscillating around 158 per dollar. The rise in US yields supports the dollar and can weaken the yen, but it also increases the discount rate of future profits and penalizes tech stocks. The oil and coal sectors were among the strongest.
