Argentina

Buenos Aires, October 14, 2026. The IMF's global figure, 3.1% growth in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, is just the backdrop. In Argentine media, the headline is national: the Fund has lowered the country's growth from 3.5% to 2.1% this year, a 1.4 percentage point decrease, and from 4% to 3.5% for 2027. The Buenos Aires Herald notes that Argentina is thus falling below regional (2.3%) and global (3.1%) averages. The Buenos Aires Times emphasizes that the new projection remains above the 1.5% expected by analysts in the Central Bank's REM survey, but about one point below the 3% that the government of Javier Milei retains in its 2027 budget plan.

The IMF is also revising its inflation estimate for 2026, from 30.4% to 32.5%, and for 2027, from 15.7% to 21.2%. Unemployment would rise from 7.2% to 7.6%. Petya Koeva Brooks, from the research department, attributes the revision to weaker activity in the third quarter, weakened domestic demand, and still restrictive financial conditions. El Cronista notes that a Tucumana, Silvana Tenreyro, is presenting the WEO for the first time as chief economist, and lends her a message focused on the need to "recompose the budget space".

The second thread is the meeting, on Tuesday, October 13, in Bangkok, between Economy Minister Luis Caputo and Kristalina Georgieva. Caputo reports that she was "very praising of fiscal discipline", deemed exemplary in the world. El Cronista nuances: he leaves without the approval of the third review of the $20 billion program signed in April 2025, without a closing date, with about $900 million pending. The primary surplus for the first half of the year (0.6% of GDP) remains below the target of 0.7%, hence the need for a waiver from the Board of Directors. The country still owes about $850 million in November and $340 million in December.

Third angle, financing. According to El Cronista, the Fund's alert on the rise in sovereign yields of advanced economies may close the window of emerging markets, while the IMF was expecting Argentina's return to the markets in 2026. The government has preferred multilateral banks, judging that the country risk does not reflect the fundamentals.

The contrast between AI winners and energy importers only appears in the background, except in energy: MercoPress and the Herald recall a barrel at $96, about 40% more than in 2025, which benefits raw material exporters, including the Argentine energy sector.