DOMINANT ANGLE
Addis Ababa retains from the IMF its national projection, a growth of 9.2% in 2026, and immediately nuances it with inflation and the current deficit, more than with the global map of AI winners.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
The IMF projects a 9.2% growth in real GDP in 2026, then 7.8% in 2027 (Capital Ethiopia).
- 02
Inflation is estimated at 16% in 2025, 11.7% in 2026 and 12.3% in 2027; the current deficit would rise from 0.8% to 2.5% of GDP in 2026.
- 03
The delegation met with two IMF departments in Bangkok for technical assistance to the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank (Fana BC).
ANALYSIS
Addis-Abeba, 14 October 2026. In the Ethiopian press, the IMF's World Economic Outlook is read first on a national scale, and not through the world map of AI winners and energy importers. Capital Ethiopia reports that the Fund, in its October 2026 report, projects for Ethiopia a real GDP growth of 9.2% in 2026, identical to the 2025 estimate, before slowing down to 7.8% in 2027. The newspaper sees "potential challenges" for maintaining this momentum.
Inflation is a major focus. According to the report, consumer prices rose by 16% in 2025; the IMF expects 11.7% in 2026, then a rebound to 12.3% in 2027. Capital Ethiopia believes that, even in decline, this level remains high and continues to weigh on household purchasing power and business costs: inflation can erode the real value of income, particularly for low-income families, and complicate the translation of growth into improved living standards.
The second point of vigilance is the external balance. The current account deficit would rise from around 0.8% of GDP in 2025 to 2.5% in 2026, before returning to 1.3% in 2027. The daily newspaper presents this deterioration as a sign of pressure on the country's external balance, while noting that the expected improvement in 2027 would suggest some easing. The article also mentions the Fund's warnings about the vulnerability of the global economy, without detailing the mechanism: neither the $96 barrel nor the Strait of Ormuz nor the concentration of growth in 32 countries appears in the available excerpts.
Fana Media Corporation, on its part, treats the sequence from an institutional angle. In Bangkok, on the sidelines of the 2026 IMF-World Bank annual meetings, the Ethiopian delegation met separately with the Fund's budget affairs department and its monetary and capital markets department. The discussions focused on ongoing technical assistance and additional support to the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Ethiopia, in line with their reform priorities. Fana sees this as a reflection of "continued cooperation" with the institution and the strengthening of the necessary capacities to implement these reforms.
The contrast is clear between the two readings: one highlights a flattering growth figure accompanied by reservations about prices and external accounts, the other the pursuit of a technical partnership with the Fund.
