Russia

Moscow, October 1, 2026. Russian media are treating the Kaliningrad affair as a diplomatic communication in chain. On September 29, the Russian Embassy in Ireland posted on social media that Moscow will be ready to use "its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons" if NATO countries attempt to isolate the region from the rest of the country. According to Vedomosti, the text mentions a "possibility of preventive strikes against the decision-making centers" of NATO states from the start of a conflict. An equivalent note, which Reuters has seen, was sent to NATO by the Russian Embassy in Brussels, which also informed the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and denounces a "dangerous and reckless course".

Russian press details Moscow's grievances. Vedomosti quotes the embassy: from June to September 2026, NATO exercises with "anti-Russian" scenarios were held almost without interruption in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, and the Baltic Sea. The Franco-Polish-Lithuanian maneuvers Gallant Boar 2026 specifically targeted Kaliningrad. Finland and the Baltic countries are also joining, according to the same source, the French initiative of "advanced deterrence", which provides for French nuclear weapons "on the threshold" of Russia.

The Kremlin assumes the basis. Dmitry Peskov explains that Russian doctrine documents provide for a nuclear response to any attempt at blockade and that diplomats are simply reminding the "hotheads" of Europe. Maria Zakharova, interviewed by Vedomosti, asserts that Russia "does not threaten" Europeans but that no one should doubt its ability to prevent aggression. She accuses certain officials of dreaming of a "military defeat" of Russia and a strike on Kaliningrad's infrastructure, and hopes that these warnings will be "heard by those to whom they are intended".

Western reactions are reported without comment. TASS quotes Mark Rutte, who confirms having received the warning, repeats that NATO is a defensive alliance and does not believe in a Russian threat. Interfax adds that he considers the current nuclear risk to be nil and that there is no "immediate threat". NATO spokesperson Allison Hart has described the message as "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric". Meduza and Interfax also note that Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics has recalled that there is no legal obstacle to hosting nuclear weapons in Latvia and that London proposed on September 29 to extend its nuclear protection to the Baltic countries.