Nepal glacier collapse: the missing rise to 6,150 as a study attributes the disaster to warming

Brasília, Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Brazilian press is re-examining the Langtang Lirung catastrophe through two complementary prisms: the scientific evidence that has just been published and the human toll that continues to worsen, three weeks after the tragedy. Folha de S.Paulo and UOL Notícias are reporting on the study published this Thursday by the World Weather Attribution, a group led by researchers from London's Imperial College. According to their conclusions, the August 26 collapse — when part of the ice and rocks from an outcrop broke off from the summit of Langtang Lirung, flooding the Lendi River valley and sweeping away entire communities — resulted from a combination of climate and geological events, exacerbated by warming. "It's essential to emphasize that there was no single trigger event," explains Walter Immerzeel, a professor at the University of Utrecht, quoted by Folha. "The rupture occurred at an altitude of around 5,150 meters, and several processes acted together over timescales ranging from years to decades, rather than a single isolated factor. This also makes direct climate attribution particularly difficult." Friederike Otto, from Imperial College, who leads the initiative, specifies that she brought together glaciologists and mountain region specialists "to gather in one place what we know to date" and "to identify the factors behind the catastrophe and the role of climate change."

The other thread being followed by Folha Mundo is that of the human toll, revised on Wednesday, September 16, by Nepalese authorities: the number of missing people has risen to 6,150, compared to 5,179 announced on Tuesday, September 15. Spokeswoman Shanti Mahat explains to AFP that the data is collected from district offices and then revised after verification. Only 7% of the 1,403 bodies found have been identified, despite 1,206 DNA samples taken from the bodies and 1,889 from families; only 105 bodies have been returned to their loved ones. At least 636 foreigners are among the missing on the Nepalese side. On the Chinese side, the official press reports 43 deaths and 519 missing, bringing the cumulative toll from both countries to 1,446 dead and at least 6,669 missing.

Berne, September 17, 2026. The two aspects of the Langtang Lirung disaster are coming together in the Swiss press this week: a increasingly heavy human toll and a scientific explanation that rules out the hypothesis of a simple natural accident. The number of people reported missing has been revised from 5,179 to 6,150 by the Nepalese authorities, after cross-checking data from district offices; ten additional bodies have just been extracted from two hydroelectric sites in the Rasuwa district, at Chilime and Upper Trishuli-1, three weeks after the August 26 collapse.

It is the crisis management by Kathmandu that is holding the attention of the Swiss press. A delegation of 35 representatives of Nepalese civil society, who toured the disaster zone on the Chinese border, draws a severe assessment. Gopal Krishna Siwakoti, head of the International Institute for Human Rights, Environment and Development, acknowledges the commitment of the army and police, who risked their lives day and night, but denounces the initial choice of Balendra Shah's government to manage the disaster alone. "The government should have immediately asked for foreign aid," he asserts, estimating that the international appeal came only after four to five days, when many lives had already been lost. Jagat Deuja, from the Community Self Reliance Center, confirms that the distribution of aid, initially organized alone by the central government, lacked efficiency, as did the coordination with provincial authorities and early warning in low-lying areas along the rivers.

This critical analysis is in line with the publication, on Thursday, of the World Weather Attribution study. According to hydrologist Walter Immerzeel, from Utrecht University, the region has undergone "fundamental and irreversible changes": the retreat of the glacier and permafrost has weakened a slope already made vulnerable, perhaps in part by the 7.8-magnitude earthquake in 2015. The study confirms that July and August 2026 were the hottest months ever recorded in the region, and that the heavy snowfall at the end of 2025 had increased the volume of available meltwater.

For the Swiss press, the two findings complement each other: the scientific attribution establishes that warming has amplified a pre-existing geological risk, while the situation on the ground shows that the Nepalese institutional response was unable to follow the scale of the event.

Dhaka, September 17, 2026. Three weeks after the glacial collapse of Langtang Lirung, the Bangladeshi press places the energy shockwave on the same level as the human toll. According to Nepalese authorities cited on Wednesday, September 16, around 5,200 people remain missing, including 636 foreigners; another count cited on Thursday, September 17, mentions at least 6,600 missing, with a death toll exceeding 1,400 confirmed. Only 7% of the recovered bodies have been identified: out of 1,206 DNA samples collected and 1,889 taken from families, only 105 bodies have been returned.

Bangladesh has its own equation to solve. The floods of the Bhotekoshi have damaged the Trishuli and Chilime power plants, authorized to export to India and Bangladesh: deliveries to Dhaka have been interrupted for nearly a month. India has just renewed the authorization to import up to 654 megawatts for the Nepal Electricity Authority, eighteen hours a day until December 31, but has not renewed the export permits for three projects, including Upper Chameliya (38.8 MW), while the deficit caused by the floods reaches 350 to 400 MW. Kathmandu is now seeking New Delhi's approval to sell electricity from the Kabeli B-1 and Solu Khola power plants to Bangladesh.

At the bilateral level, Nepalese Prime Minister Balendra Shah thanked his Bangladeshi counterpart Tarique Rahman for the contribution of one million dollars paid into the relief fund and for the motion of condolences adopted by the Parliament of Bangladesh, a gesture he described as a reflection of "the sincere sympathy and solidarity of the people of Bangladesh". Cooperation is following the same trend elsewhere: the Nepalese ambassador to Dhaka met with the president of the Bangladesh Cricket Board to dedicate the next T20 series to the flood victims.

The attribution study by the World Weather Attribution, published on Thursday, remains secondary in this treatment: climatologist Friederike Otto asserts that there is "absolutely no doubt" about the role of warming in the permafrost thaw. But for the Bangladeshi press, the Nepalese catastrophe is first and foremost an interruption of the electricity supply to be repaired before winter.

Paris, September 17, 2026. The French press first takes note of the scientists' word: "a combination of factors." Published on Thursday, September 17, by the World Weather Attribution and reported by Le Monde, the study on the collapse of Langtang Lirung does not reduce the August 26 catastrophe to a single climate warming, but rather inscribes it in a complex of climatic and geological causes that mutually reinforce each other at high altitude. The researchers insist on a point that breaks with the reflex of seeking a single culprit: it is, according to them, impossible to prepare for an event of such magnitude. The technical account is precise. On August 26, on the north face of the massif, approximately two square kilometers of rocks and ice located at 5,150 meters altitude detached and fell 1,400 meters lower. Seven minutes later, a wall of water, ice, rocks, and sediments hit the Rasuwagadhi border post, 22 kilometers downstream, before continuing its course over dozens of kilometers in Nepal and Tibet.

In addition to this scientific framework, the French press also reports, in the same columns, an update on the human toll. On Wednesday, September 16, the Nepalese authority in charge of disasters raised the number of missing people to 6,150, compared to 5,179 the day before, after cross-checking with district offices. Its spokesperson, Shanti Mahat, explained that they had "revised the data after verification." The number of bodies found has reached 1,403, of which only 105 have been identified. Adding the Chinese toll - 43 dead and 519 missing on the Tibetan side -, the French press now estimates the total at 1,446 dead and at least 6,669 missing, a total that includes several hundred foreigners, tourists, and pilgrims.

The third thread followed by the French press is that of the bill: $4.78 billion in estimated reconstruction costs by Katmandu, an amount that Nepal, a rural country of 30 million inhabitants representing only a fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, intends to bring before the United Nations General Assembly, where Prime Minister Balendra Shah will make his first official foreign trip next week.

Katmandou, September 17, 2026. Three weeks after the glacial collapse of Langtang Lirung, Nepal is discovering the extent of the void it has left behind, both administratively and humanly. The records of the tourist police list 795 tourists still missing after the floods of the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli, including 607 foreigners and 188 Nepalis, reports the Kathmandu Post. In front of the Nepal Tourism Board offices in Bhrikutimandap, families from India, Russia, and Ukraine are still waiting for a response. Vichitra Jain, from India, is searching for her Russian friend Kirill Tretiakov, who has been missing since August 26: "I don't know where to go or how to search. No one has helped us," she confides.

Inside the country, another obstacle is adding to the grief: the law. In the Rasuwa district, families have begun to perform Hindu funeral rites with symbolic bodies made of kusha grass, as they are unable to legally confirm the death of loved ones who were never found. The district offices, seized by the Rasuwa risk management committee, are demanding from the Ministry of Interior an accelerated registration mechanism, essential for insurance and official recognition of deaths.

Fear is spreading beyond the affected valleys. Local officials, who met on Tuesday in Jomsom, in the Mustang region, have measured how similar their own riverbanks are: "We are currently on the riverbanks. If a flood like the one in Rasuwa occurs, we will not survive either," warned a municipal official quoted by Ratopati. A resident asked experts about the ban, in the name of the Annapurna conservation area, on removing the sediments that accumulate in the bed of the Kaligandaki.

On the political front, the multiparty meeting convened on Wednesday by Rabi Lamichhane, the leader of the ruling Rastriya Swatantra Party, decided in favor of a special parliamentary committee for reconstruction, estimated to cost around 500 billion rupees, and set the points that Kathmandu will bring to the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly on climate justice, according to Ratopati.

A study published on Thursday by World Weather Attribution comes to support this diplomatic line: warming has probably contributed to the collapse, in a Himalayan region that is warming at about twice the global average, recalls an editorial in Online Khabar. For Kathmandu, the argument is now documented: a country that emits almost nothing is bearing the weight of a disorder it did not cause.

Manille, September 17, 2026. The Philippine press presents two distinct versions of the catastrophe that occurred on August 26 on the Langtang Lirung massif, on the Sino-Nepalese border. On one hand, GMA News relays the study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), published on Thursday, which concludes that there is "no doubt" about the role of climate change in the glacial collapse that killed more than 1,400 people and left at least 6,600 missing. The scientists specify that the disaster was not triggered by a single extreme weather episode, but by a "compound crisis" combining long-term warming, glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and geological instability. Climatologist Walter Immerzeel, from the University of Utrecht, describes a region undergoing "fundamental, irreversible shifts", where glacial retreat and permafrost degradation are weakening the mountain; he recalls that the 7.8-magnitude earthquake in 2015 had already weakened the slope, before July and August 2026, the hottest months ever recorded locally, and a heavy snowfall in late 2025, further destabilized the area due to excess meltwater. The study also notes that Nepal, a rural nation of 30 million inhabitants, accounts for only a tiny fraction of global emissions.

On the other hand, the Inquirer puts a face to this numerical toll. On September 7, Vichitra Jain, from India, stood in front of the Nepalese tourism office in Kathmandu, holding a photo of her Russian friend Kirill Tretiakov, who disappeared during the flood; she still does not know if he is alive. The official ceremony to honor the victims has ended, the officials have left, the gate has closed — she remains without an answer. Two other foreigners were waiting in the same place for news of loved ones who are still unaccounted for, three weeks after the event.

For the Philippine press, these two accounts do not overlap: one measures a climate phenomenon on the scale of the Himalayas, the other describes the wait of families that Kathmandu has failed to inform. Neither of the two articles mentions a Filipino national among the missing, nor the economic stakes related to the hydroelectric dams affected by the flood.

Stockholm, September 17, 2026. On Thursday, several Swedish newspapers highlighted the publication of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) on the causes of the "lervåg" — the mudslide — that hit Nepal at the end of August. Svenska Dagbladet, Aftonbladet, and Expressen reproduced, almost word for word, the analysis of the researchers: the catastrophe did not result from a single meteorological event, but from a combination of factors. The 2015 earthquake would have weakened the rock face, without its exact role being able to be quantified, according to glaciologist Walter Immerzeel, cited in the three publications: "We cannot precisely evaluate the role played by the earthquake, but it may have weakened the rock mass."

The articles detail the geophysical mechanism retained by the scientists: the thawing of permafrost in a particularly sensitive transition zone to warming, the widening of rock fissures, increased water infiltration, and the multiplication of freeze-thaw cycles. The neighboring glacier of the collapsed area has retreated by more than 300 meters between 2010 and 2026, while the glaciers in the region have lost approximately half a meter of thickness per year since 2000. Local annual temperatures would have risen by about two degrees, a rate considered significantly higher than the average global warming.

Sveriges Radio puts this scientific finding into the human toll: more than 5,000 people were still missing at the time of publication, a figure attributed to both warming and a particularly hot summer in the region that accelerated glacial melting. Aftonbladet, in a separate article published on Wednesday, reports the official Nepalese revision: the number of missing people has risen from 5,179 to 6,150 after verification of the data transmitted by the district offices, according to Shanti Mahat, spokesperson for the relief authority cited by the media. 1,403 bodies have been found, of which only 105 have been identified.

None of the Swedish articles mention the research being conducted for the missing foreign nationals, nor the Nepalese announcement to bring the climate issue before the United Nations General Assembly.