DOMINANT ANGLE
Paris is gauging the double failure of the oil corridors: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now compounded by that of the Bab el-Mandeb, with a barrel already above $100 and the threat of a peak at $130 or $140.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
According to Kpler data cited by BFM Business, 21 ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb on Monday, compared to 28 the day before.
- 02
The Arab coalition reports 13 civilians were injured in Monday's Houthi strikes on Khamis Mushait, Abha, and Taïf, according to BFMTV.
- 03
According to L'Express, nearly 8% of global LNG and around 12% of global oil pass through Bab el-Mandeb, and a barrel at $130-140 is not ruled out.
ANALYSIS
Paris, September 16, 2026. The French press is tallying signs of an energy crisis at two straits. Since the Houthis took control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait on September 11, and then the island of Mayyoun (Perim), maritime traffic has collapsed: according to Kpler data cited by BFM Business, 21 ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb on Monday, compared to 28 the day before. The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Ibrahim Al-Hashmi, believes a closure would be "catastrophic": "The world is already suffering enough from the closure of the Ormuz strait (...), so we cannot afford to add Bab Al-Mandab to this equation."
L'Express quantifies the stakes: nearly 8% of global liquefied natural gas exports and around 12% of global oil pass through Bab el-Mandeb, compared to 20.9 million barrels per day for Ormuz. Analyst Cyril Widdershoven anticipates "prolonged delays in maritime transport, a shortage of available ships, and higher oil prices," without ruling out a barrel at $130 or $140. Crude oil has already exceeded $100, according to Le Monde. France 24 notes that several countries are turning to coal to bypass Ormuz, with global demand expected to reach a record 8.94 billion tons this year, according to the International Energy Agency.
On the ground, the Houthis claimed on Monday to have launched an attack of "dozens of ballistic missiles and drones" against the Saudi King Khalid airbase in Khamis Mushait; the Arab coalition reported 13 civilians injured in Khamis Mushait, Abha, and Taif. On Tuesday, Riyadh accused the rebels of targeting Mecca with an intercepted drone, an accusation the Houthis describe as a "worn-out lie." At Ormuz, two sailors from the Elgaia oil tanker remain missing after an attack, with 23 others evacuated. Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman received US Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah before meeting with Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi in Cairo; the two leaders call for "guaranteeing the freedom and security of maritime navigation." Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attacks, saying the EU is "in solidarity" with the Gulf against "Iran's relays."
SOURCES (7)
- 20 MinutesMEDIUM
- France 24 ENMEDIUM
- Le Monde InternationalMEDIUM
- Sud OuestMEDIUM
- L'ExpressMEDIUM
- BFMTVMEDIUM
- BFM BusinessMEDIUM