DOMINANT ANGLE
Brasília is deciphering a first round played out as a rejection showdown between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, in a campaign marked by scandals and the crisis of the Supreme Court.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
Datafolha (October 3): Lula 45% of valid votes, Flávio Bolsonaro 42%, a two-point margin.
- 02
According to Folha, the three-point gap is the smallest on the eve of a first round in Datafolha polls since 1989.
- 03
Over 158 million voters, 12 candidates; runoff on October 25 if no one exceeds 50%.
ANALYSIS
Brasília, October 4, 2026. Brazilians are voting this Sunday, and the country's press describes a showdown between two names. Estadão talks about a campaign "captured by corruption scandals and the crisis at the Federal Supreme Court" (STF), which has ruled out a third way and narrowed the race to Lula (PT), 80, running for a fourth term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), 45.
Polls published on Saturday, October 3, show a tight duel. Datafolha gives Lula 45% of valid votes against 42% for Flávio, a technical tie with a margin of two points. Folha notes that this is the smallest gap on the eve of a first round in Datafolha polls since 1989: it was 14 points in 2022. Atlas, cited by Estadão, credits Lula with 47% against 44.1%, and then 50.1% against 49.9% in the second round. At Datafolha, Lula leads among 16-24 year olds (46% against 32%) and those 60 and older (47% against 38%); the intermediate brackets are in a technical tie.
The campaign has been about rejection. Folha reports that Lula's team sought to increase rejection of Flávio, relying on the "Dark Horse" case: the candidate appears in message exchanges, asking for money from Daniel Vorcaro, boss of former Banco Master, for a film about his father. G1 recalls that Jair Bolsonaro is serving his sentence for attempted coup d'etat under house arrest. Lula, for his part, must counter wear and tear after 44 years of electoral life; his latest spot says: "mudar para trás, a gente já viu no que deu". The two men have around 45% disapproval, according to Estadão.
The day before, Lula marched in São Paulo, opposing "democracy and sovereignty" to "barbarism and corruption", while Flávio, after a motorcycle procession, claimed that "Lula's friends" on the STF are interfering in the election. TV Globo canceled the last debate of the first round on Thursday, October 1, after last-minute decisions by STF and TSE judges.
The American aspect is mainly through the foreign press: Jornal de Brasília relays the New York Times, which mentions a "protection barrier" in Brazil against Donald Trump's interference. If no one exceeds 50%, the second round will take place on October 25.
SOURCES (4)
- Jornal de BrasíliaMEDIUM
- EstadãoMEDIUM
- G1MEDIUM
