DOMINANT ANGLE
Berlin is deciphering a neck-and-neck duel between 80-year-old Lula and the son of Jair Bolsonaro, and weighing what the outcome will change for Europe and the balance between Washington, Beijing, and Brussels.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
More than 158 million voters cast their ballots on October 4; a second round on October 25 is deemed almost certain (ZEIT).
- 02
Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for attempted coup; Flávio is under investigation for alleged money laundering and corruption (ZEIT).
- 03
The Handelsblatt estimates that the winner will determine Brazil's position between Washington, Beijing, and Europe, while the Abin had reported in August a risk of American interference (ZEIT).
ANALYSIS
Berlin, October 4, 2026. More than 158 million Brazilians are voting this Sunday for their president, Congress, governors, and state parliaments, recalls ZEIT. The polls are announcing a "neck-and-neck race" between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Neither of the two would achieve an absolute majority: a second round on October 25 is considered "almost certain".
The Tagesschau focuses on the character of Lula. At 80 years old, the former union leader is seeking a fourth term. Its report starts from a restaurant in São Bernardo do Campo, the former "Detroit of Brazil", where a former metallurgist evokes the general strike of 1979 under the dictatorship. Lula is described as "close to the people and pragmatic", and as an important partner for Europe.
Deutsche Welle reports on the closing of the campaign in São Paulo. Lula has promised to "defeat the far right" and opposed "democracy and sovereignty" to "barbarism and corruption"; his organizers claim 150,000 people. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45 years old, paraded on a motorcycle promising increased security and tax cuts, and says he is convinced of winning in the first round. He brandished a portrait of his father, whom the crowd called "mito".
ZEIT is the most critical of the right-wing candidate. In "The Old Man and the Nepo-Baby", it tells the story of the July congress where an AI-generated avatar of Jair Bolsonaro recommended his son to the crowd. It recalls the assault on Congress in 2023 and the condemnation of the former president to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup d'état. Another article of the same title notes that an investigation is also targeting Flávio for alleged money laundering and corruption, and that his displayed moderation is based on his father's foundation.
The international aspect is central. ZEIT cites the alert from the Abin services in August about the risk of American interference, and Donald Trump who is following the election "very closely". It mentions the condemnation of Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flávio's brother. Handelsblatt asks "how strong will Trump's influence be in South America?" and estimates that the winner will decide Brazil's position "between Washington, Beijing, and Europe", the two candidates embodying clearly different courses. ZEIT finally evokes a possible right-wing wave in Latin America.
SOURCES (4)
- ZEIT OnlineMEDIUM
- HandelsblattMEDIUM
