DOMINANT ANGLE
Bogotá is watching the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro showdown as a battle that is as much parliamentary as it is presidential, where Congress can decide the fate of Jair Bolsonaro.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
According to CNT/MDA (La República, October 3), Lula would get 43.1% versus 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, and 47.8% versus 42.1% in valid votes.
- 02
More than 158 million voters choose nearly 1,800 positions; Congress, necessary for an amnesty, is renewed (Portafolio).
- 03
A second round is set for October 25 if no one exceeds 50% of valid votes; Lula would lead 47.3% to 43.1% according to CNT/MDA.
ANALYSIS
Bogotá, October 4, 2026. Colombian economic media outlets are focusing their coverage of the Brazilian election on the numerical balance of power and the institutional architecture of the vote. Portafolio notes that "it's not just Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro": on Sunday, Brazilians will cast six ballots, for the presidency, state authorities, and a Congress whose importance is growing. More than 158 million voters are being called to elect nearly 1,800 positions.
The newspaper emphasizes the parliamentary stakes. The Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate, both currently with a conservative majority, will be renewed, and their vote is necessary for the amnesty that Flávio Bolsonaro is defending for his father. Jair Bolsonaro is being held, sentenced to 27 years in prison for an attempted coup against Lula in 2022. Portafolio also details the family dimension: Michelle and Carlos Bolsonaro are vying for two of the 54 Senate seats, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, 28, a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, the one his half-brother Eduardo left when he went into exile in the United States in 2025.
Portafolio describes Lula, soon to be 81 and seeking a fourth term, campaigning in São Paulo wearing a hat, surrounded by a "red tide", the color of the Workers' Party, which has paralyzed the Avenida Paulista, as the campaign comes to a close.
La República, an economic daily, is focusing on the polls. According to the CNT/MDA survey published on Saturday, October 3, Lula would receive 43.1% of the vote in the first round, against 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro, followed by Augusto Cury (3.2%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%), and Renan Santos (1.5%). Among valid votes, Lula receives 47.8% against 42.1%. The newspaper highlights that the president's lead is narrowing: a poll on September 15 credited him with 40.5% against 30.4%.
If no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes, a second round will take place on October 25. La República notes that it is expected to be tighter: 47.3% for Lula against 43.1% for Flávio Bolsonaro, whereas the previous poll gave 47.3% against 40%.
