DOMINANT ANGLE
Islamabad is deciphering the Brazilian election through the prism of Washington: the Pakistani press is making Donald Trump the third man in a presidential election that pits Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
Donald Trump imposed a 50% customs duty on Brazilian imports last year, citing among other things the lawsuits against Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years in prison (Geo News).
- 02
The CNT/MDA poll on October 3 gives Lula 43.1% and Flávio Bolsonaro 38% in the first round, compared to 40.5% and 30.4% on September 15 (ARY News, Reuters).
- 03
A second round would take place on October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes; Lula would be at 47.3% against 43.1% according to the same poll.
ANALYSIS
Islamabad, October 4, 2026. For Geo News, this Sunday's Brazilian election is first and foremost marked by an absence: "one of the biggest names influencing the election will not appear anywhere on the ballot: Donald Trump." Nearly 160 million Brazilians are called to vote. Twelve candidates are in the running, but Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a new term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, dominate the race.
The Pakistani media explains how the Bolsonaro family's ties to the American president have made Washington an unusually central theme. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence, convicted of plotting a coup after his 2022 defeat. Geo recalls that Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports last year, citing the prosecution of the former president. Lula saw this as an attempt to interfere in Brazil's affairs.
The two camps are presented in mirror image. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has assumed these ties: he has visited the White House and the State Department and defends a rapprochement with Washington in his foreign policy project. Lula takes the opposite approach, invoking Brazilian sovereignty and warning Donald Trump against any interference. When asked on Friday, October 2, the American president said that Washington is "watching that election very closely," at a time when the United States temporarily suspended its consular services in Brazil for security reasons.
ARY News, which picks up a Reuters dispatch, focuses on the numbers. The CNT/MDA poll published on Saturday, October 3, gives Lula 43.1% in the first round against 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro, followed by Augusto Cury (3.2%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%), and Renan Santos (1.5%). In valid votes, the gap is 47.8% against 42.1%. The September 15 poll gave Lula 40.5% and Bolsonaro 30.4%: the gap has therefore narrowed.
For a potential second round, set for October 25 if no one exceeds 50% of valid votes, Lula would obtain 47.3% against 43.1% for his rival, compared to 47.3% to 40% in the previous survey. The study, conducted from September 30 to October 2 among 2,007 people, has a margin of error of 2.2 points.
