DOMINANT ANGLE
Lima is watching a tight Brazilian duel through the polls: the technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro announces a probable second round on October 25.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
Datafolha, published on October 3: Lula 45% of valid votes, Flávio Bolsonaro 42% in the first round; 47% to 46% in a hypothetical second round.
- 02
Quaest puts Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in the first round, but the senator leads 44% to 42% in the second.
- 03
São Paulo has 34 million voters out of 158 million registered; the two candidates held simultaneous rallies there on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Lima, October 4, 2026. The Peruvian press is treating the first round of the Brazilian election as a poll race. Ojo opens with a "technical tie" between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, classified on the left, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, classified on the right, who are facing off in the polls this Sunday. The newspaper recalls that, failing to exceed 50% of the votes, the two men would go to the second round on October 25.
The numbers occupy the bulk of the story. According to the Datafolha institute, published on Saturday, October 3, Lula collects 45% of valid votes and Bolsonaro 42%. For a potential second round, Lula gets 47% and Bolsonaro 46%. Two days earlier, the same measure gave 48% against 45% to the president: Ojo concludes that Bolsonaro has "acortado la distancia". A second poll, signed Quaest, places Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in the first round. In the event of a runoff, it is this time the senator who takes the lead, with 44% against 42%.
The newspaper then describes the closing of the campaign: on Saturday, the two candidates held simultaneous and well-attended rallies in different regions of the state of São Paulo, the country's first electoral college with 34 million voters out of 158 million registered. Ojo also notes a calendar detail: the voting of Brazilians began on Saturday in Oceania and Asia, where Bolsonaro benefits from stronger support than Lula.
RPP Noticias, on the other hand, offers a photo gallery of 18 shots, published on Saturday, October 3 at 4:40 pm, on "así vive Brasil la víspera de los comicios". It presents Lula as "presidente y candidato a la reelección" and Bolsonaro as his "rival más próximo", with a caption credited to the EFE agency. The media also reiterates its news banner: "este domingo se celebrará la primera vuelta, con Lula da Silva y Flávio Bolsonaro como favoritos".
In these two texts, the election is therefore read as a tight duel whose outcome remains open and whose second round seems likely. Neither American customs duties nor the role of Washington appears in the provided passages, nor does Jair Bolsonaro's past.
