DOMINANT ANGLE
Buenos Aires is deciphering Lula's re-election through its impact on Javier Milei: a silent government, a celebratory Peronism, and a decline in bilateral trade.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
Lula wins with 51.76% against 48.24% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a lead of more than 4.4 million votes, according to the TSE cited by Perfil.
- 02
The Milei government did not congratulate Lula, while Antonio Kast and Santiago Peña were among the first to do so (Infobae).
- 03
In September, Argentine-Brazilian trade fell by 12.7% year over year to $2.662 billion, with imports down 25.2% (El Cronista, ABECEB).
ANALYSIS
Buenos Aires, October 26, 2026. The Argentine press is treating Lula's re-election as a regional event before being Brazilian. According to the Superior Electoral Court, Lula won with 51.76% against 48.24% for Flávio Bolsonaro, after finishing second in the first round on October 4 (45.16% against 47.03%). Perfil highlights more than 4.4 million votes ahead, almost double the 2.2 million the senator had in the first round, with 64.2 million votes. The Buenos Aires Times talks about a "stunning victory" that stops a right-wing wave in Latin America.
The voting day is told in detail. Perfil reports that Lula denounced the withdrawal of buses in São Paulo and Salvador, and that Judge Cristiano Zanin extended the voting until 7 pm across the territory. Flávio Bolsonaro had invoked heavy rains and landslides. El Cronista specifies that his camp contested the decision of a single magistrate and announced that they would demand the annulment of the electoral process.
In his speech, Lula stated that Brazil "is not anyone's backyard", evoking external interference, and called for regulating large digital platforms after the conflict with Meta.
The main prism remains the relationship with Buenos Aires. Infobae describes a concerned Milei government, which did not congratulate Lula while the Chilean Antonio Kast and the Paraguayan Santiago Peña did so among the first. In the executive branch, some mention a possible fraud, others judge that Milei's regional leadership and his link with Donald Trump remain intact; at the Casa Rosada, they celebrate a "TMAP", "everything is going according to plan". On the other hand, Cristina Kirchner, Sergio Massa, and Axel Kicillof welcomed the result, the first speaking of an "October 17th electoral".
El Cronista adds the commercial angle: in September, bilateral exchanges fell by 12.7% over a year, to $2,662 million, with imports from Brazil plummeting 25.2%, the eleventh consecutive decline. The Lula government had denounced the "injerencia" of Milei, openly favorable to Bolsonaro, and the ambassadors were withdrawn. Ámbito finally recalls that the prediction markets gave around 80% chances to Bolsonaro.
SOURCES (5)
- Buenos Aires TimesMEDIUM
- El CronistaMEDIUM
- AmbitoMEDIUM
- PerfilMEDIUM
