Colombia

Bogotá, September 17, 2026. The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a point on Wednesday, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. The Colombian economic press first reads the news through the exchange rate: as soon as the market opened, the dollar rose to 3,110.47 pesos, compared to a TRM (representative market rate) of 3,100.45 pesos, "amid market expectations" according to El Colombiano, which notes six transactions for $1.5 million at the start of the session.

The decision, made unanimously under the presidency of Kevin Warsh — appointed by Donald Trump in May with the hope that he would lower rates —, is presented as an implicit disavowal of the White House's economic strategy. La Republica notes that the committee's unanimity "recognizes, in practice, the inability of the Donald Trump government to control inflation". Warsh, who says he appreciates that the institution makes a decision after "a good family fight", had reaffirmed his commitment to the Fed's "2% price stability target" at Jackson Hole in August. He justified the rate hike due to the strength of employment and investment, while admitting that "inflation remains high" and that summer data "does not reflect sufficient improvements" — the August PCE inflation rate is estimated at 3.6% annually, the underlying rate at 3.2%.

The committee's projections, relayed by Portafolio, indicate that 16 of the 18 officials anticipate at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. BBVA analysts believe that Warsh "has put himself in a scenario of rising interest rates by adopting a firm rhetoric" against inflation; economist Gregory Daco (EY) estimates that the Fed should not also "hold back" from acting as the mid-term elections approach. Gold, a safe-haven asset, was already up 0.7% to $4,324.36 an ounce before the announcement, driven by the weakening of the dollar and the decline of oil.

For the Colombian markets, the immediate challenge remains the cost of external financing and the trajectory of the peso against the dollar, more than the institutional duel that is looming between the Fed and the White House.