Argentina

Buenos Aires, October 5, 2026. For the Argentine press, Flávio Bolsonaro's victory in the first round is a surprise. Ámbito and Perfil give 47.03% for the Liberal Party senator against 45.16% for Lula, a difference of just over 2.2 million votes. The previous day's polls had the president in the lead: Perfil cites a Datafolha poll with 45% for Lula against 42% for his rival. The second round is set for October 25. Perfil notes a record abstention rate of 21.08% and a country "divided in two" according to a clear regional fracture. Ámbito recalls that Flávio Bolsonaro's score fell as the vote count progressed, particularly with the votes from the Northeast, after exceeding 52% at the beginning.

The focus quickly shifts to Milei. Infobae reports that the Argentine president followed the results from the Olivos residence, after directly supporting the candidate in São Paulo in July, calling Lula a "scammer" according to El Cronista, which led the Planalto to summon the Brazilian ambassador to Buenos Aires. Ámbito cites his message on X: "Congratulations, dear friend Flavio Bolsonaro, on this historic election against the communist Lula," along with the hope that the two countries will remain major commercial, cultural, and political partners. Infobae notes that the Casa Rosada sees this as a series of successes for the right in the region, while avoiding predicting the outcome of the second round: "It's going to be very tight," a source confides.

The other axis is the Argentine mirror. El Cronista estimates that the result will be seen as a foretaste of the confrontation between two models that will have its local counterpart in 2027, and recalls a bilateral relationship maintained by economic inertia, with ambassadors out of their posts. Perfil highlights the echo in domestic politics: Milei shares pro-Flávio content, while former minister Sergio Massa supports Lula. Among Brazilians living in Argentina, Lula wins with 66%.

On the economic front, Ámbito headlines the market celebration: the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF jumps 9% to $41.55 in after-hours trading, and the real futures contracts gain 3.78% in Chicago, in anticipation of a budget turnaround. Perfil finally examines the arithmetic of the second round: Cury, Santos, and Caiado total nearly 7.5 points, and according to Quaest, the transfer of their votes currently benefits Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula, who calls the result "unexpected" in Ámbito, must go after the abstentionists.