DOMINANT ANGLE
Brasília is deciphering a first round that upsets the PT's calendar: the Bolsonarist wave puts Flávio ahead of Lula and opens a crisis in the presidential camp before the second round on 25 October.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
With 99.99% of ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro gets 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for Lula, a 2.2 million vote lead (Folha, Estadão).
- 02
The PL and its allies win in the first round in 10 states versus 5 for the PT and its allies; Tarcísio de Freitas is reelected in São Paulo with 62.65% (Folha).
- 03
No candidate who came in second in the first round has overturned the result in the second round since 1989; the second round takes place on October 25 (Estadão).
ANALYSIS
Brasília, October 5, 2026. According to Folha and Estadão, with 99.99% of the ballots counted this Sunday, October 4, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), 45, garnered 47.03% of the valid votes against 45.16% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), 80. Augusto Cury obtained 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, and Ronaldo Caiado 2.18%. Absenteeism reached 21.07%. Folha highlights that the gap, less than two points, is the smallest ever recorded in a first round since redemocratization; Flávio has 2.2 million more votes than Lula and surpasses, with 56.1 million votes, his father's score in 2022.
The press emphasizes the territorial dimension. Flávio wins in 14 states and in the Federal District, and makes progress in Rio Grande do Sul (55.6% against 35.7%) and in Minas Gerais (48.2% against 43.3%). Folha notes that the PL and its allies win in the first round in 10 states, against 5 for the PT and its allies, out of 20 elected governors, a record for this century. Tarcísio de Freitas is reelected in São Paulo with 62.65%; Sergio Moro (PL) is elected in Paraná. Veja reports that Michelle Bolsonaro obtains a senate seat in the Federal District and begins a solo career.
The dominant narrative is that of a Lula camp caught off guard. Estadão writes that Flávio's first place "has opened a crisis in the PT"; the president's headquarters judges it difficult to win back votes in an anti-PT climate, and its strategy will be to exploit the fear of a return of the Bolsonaro family. Folha reports dissensions within the committee, political errors, and deficient communication; PT leaders speak of "profound changes". Lula had denounced "the miliciano" and the Banco Master while voting, and opposed "democracy" and "barbarism".
Marcelo Godoy's chronicle (Estadão) recalls that since 1989, no candidate who came in second in the first round has won the second, which makes Flávio the favorite. Lula, unlike in 2022, may not be able to count on the support of eliminated candidates: Cury should remain neutral, Caiado and Zema would lean towards Flávio. According to this article, the public debate has been absorbed by the Banco Master and Supreme Court affairs.
The outside appears in the background. Estadão reports that Javier Milei has multiplied messages in favor of Flávio, who launched "Viva la Libertad, Carajo" in front of an Argentine television. Veja cites The Economist, which sees a "contest of unpopularity", and AFP, which evokes a campaign of "deep polarization". In his speech, Flávio said he was "very happy" and proclaimed "the end of the PT era".
