Mexico

Mexico, October 5, 2026. The Mexican press presents the first round of the Brazilian election on Sunday, October 4, as a surprise. El Financiero writes that Flávio Bolsonaro finished "sorpresivamente" ahead of Lula, with 47.2% against 44.7% for about 97% of the ballots counted, while the polls gave the advantage to the outgoing president. El Informador, based on data from the Superior Electoral Tribunal, gives 47.31% against 44.83% for 98.36% of the count. El Siglo de Torreón arrives at 47.03% against 45.16% for 99.99%. The figures vary slightly depending on the time of the cut.

The newspapers detail the dynamics of the count. The 45-year-old senator came close to winning in the first round, then his lead narrowed with the arrival of votes from the Northeast, a bastion of the left. According to El Informador, he gathered more than 55.5 million votes, about three million more than Lula, who did worse than in the first round of 2022 (48.4%). Lula's camp estimated that he needed a four-point lead to approach the second round serenely. Augusto Cury (2.90%), Renan Santos (2.26%), and Ronaldo Caiado (2.20%) follow far behind.

El Financiero insists on the regional and stock market dimension: conservative allies have made progress in the Senate and in key states, and the result should support Brazilian assets at the opening of markets on Monday. According to the newspaper, investors have rallied behind Bolsonaro, deemed more inclined to contain deficits and debt. The daily also recalls that Lula has strengthened ties with Beijing, while Bolsonaro claims his alliance with Donald Trump.

The properly Mexican perspective appears in El Informador. The newspaper quotes Claudia Serrano, a researcher at UNAM, according to whom "a Bolsonaro triumph would paralyze a large part of the agenda", notably the agreement by which Pemex and Petrobras plan to explore the Gulf of Mexico together. The title emphasizes that Flávio Bolsonaro proposes a free trade treaty with Washington outside of Mercosur, which would make Brazil a rival of Mexico in the maquila and automobile industries. The text also evokes the fear that a conservative victory would embolden the White House to weigh in on the 2027 Mexican midterm elections, while noting that the government of Claudia Sheinbaum has slowed down these attempts.

The judicial context is mentioned in passing: Jair Bolsonaro is serving 27 years in prison for attempting a coup, according to El Informador, which says he is under house arrest. Reforma and El Norte, for their part, reproduce the Reuters and AP dispatches on the passage to the second round, scheduled for October 25.