DOMINANT ANGLE
Moscow sees this first round as a choice of alignment: the BRICS and China with Lula, Washington and Donald Trump with Flávio Bolsonaro.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
TASS: with 97.36% of ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.42% (55,038,846 votes) versus 44.70% for Lula (51,886,308 votes); runoff on October 25.
- 02
RT: the election is a choice between a foreign policy of strengthening BRICS and ties with China (Lula) and a rapprochement with Washington (Bolsonaro).
- 03
Meduza: non-state institute polls had Lula ahead by three points before the vote.
ANALYSIS
Moscow, October 5, 2026. The Russian press reports on the first round of the Brazilian election on Sunday, October 4, as the count unfolds throughout the night. TASS first publishes a partial result where Flávio Bolsonaro exceeds 49% (64.81% of electronic ballots processed), then confirms, at 97.36% of the minutes, 47.42% for the Liberal Party senator (55,038,846 votes) against 44.70% for Lula (51,886,308 votes). According to RT, with almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro obtains 47.03% and Lula 45.16%. Sputnik gives 47.09% and 45.08%. The figures vary from one source to another, but all conclude that there will be a second round on October 25, as no candidate has exceeded 50%.
The narrative puts foreign policy at the forefront. RT presents the election as a "foreign-policy choice": on one hand, Lula, who has sought to strengthen Brazil's role in the BRICS and deepen its ties with China and the global South powers, on the other hand, Bolsonaro, who advocates for a rapprochement with Washington and highlights his relations with Donald Trump. Vedomosti, citing Reuters, notes that Trump has not formally supported any candidate but has received Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House and publicly praised him. The same article notes that the senator promises closer ties with the United States and Israel and welcomes the Trump administration's decision to classify major Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations.
Russian media also emphasize the setback for the outgoing president. Meduza recalls that polls from independent institutes gave Lula a three-point lead. Sputnik reports his words in São Paulo: "I was convinced that I was going to win the election in the first round." Lula promises a renewed campaign and presents his opponent as "uncertainty for Brazil," saying he wants to denounce his alleged links to organized crime.
The judicial context is recalled in a factual manner. RT and Meduza indicate that Jair Bolsonaro is serving 27 years in prison for attempting a coup, Meduza referring to the September 2025 conviction and the unrest that followed the 2022 defeat, with the invasion of Parliament, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace. RT recalls that Lula, 80, had spent 580 days in prison before his convictions were annulled in 2021. The articles consulted do not address the market reaction or regional results.
