DOMINANT ANGLE
Santiago is deciphering a first round that defies the polls: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by two points and the Liberal Party prevails in Congress, which makes the second round on October 25 uncertain.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
With 99.83% of ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.07% and Lula 45.11% (BioBioChile); the runoff is scheduled for October 25.
- 02
The latest Datafolha poll put Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% (La Tercera).
- 03
The Liberal Party holds 116 of the 513 seats in the Chamber and 27 seats in the Senate (La Tercera).
ANALYSIS
Santiago, October 5, 2026. The Chilean press is hailing the first round as an electoral surprise. According to BioBioChile, with 99.83% of the ballots counted, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, obtained 47.07% of the vote against 45.11% for Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. The newspaper notes that the result "supuso una sorpresa" because all the polls had the president winning with several points ahead. La Tercera recalls that the last Datafolha survey, published on the evening of Saturday, October 3, credited Lula with 45% against 42%. The two men will face off in the second round on Sunday, October 25.
The story focuses on the evening of Sunday, October 4. La Tercera notes that the count initially suggested a direct victory for Bolsonaro, with 51.22% of the vote for 17.22% of the counted ballots, before the gap narrowed. Lula acknowledged: "estaba convencido de que iba a ganar en la primera vuelta", then promised that "a partir de mañana comienza la nueva campaña", saying he was "muy bueno" in the face-to-face. BioBioChile reports that he defended fiscal stability and investment in science and education, and attacked the "biografía tenebrosa" of his rival, citing his links to paramilitary groups and the Banco Master scandal.
Flávio Bolsonaro, from Brasilia, sees the election as a mandate: "Brasil quiere un cambio. Esa es la lectura". He speaks of 56 million voters and promises a "moderno, con menos ministerios" government, which would appoint at least four judges to the Federal Supreme Court.
La Tercera emphasizes the legislative weight of the Bolsonaro camp. The Liberal Party has 116 of the 513 seats in the Chamber and 27 seats in the Senate, making it the first force in Congress, on which governability will depend from 2027. Michelle Bolsonaro is elected senator for the Federal District. BioBioChile adds that Tarcísio de Freitas is re-elected to the government of São Paulo with 62.8% of the vote against Fernando Haddad, 36.2%, with 90% of the ballots counted.
On the regional front, Argentine President Javier Milei congratulated his "querido amigo": "La libertad avanza en Brasil", he wrote, qualifying Lula as a "comunista". BioBioChile also notes the vote abroad, where Lula won in 23 of the 31 countries counted, including China and Australia, while Bolsonaro won in Japan, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates.
SOURCES (3)
- La TerceraMEDIUM
- BioBioChileMEDIUM
- El CiudadanoMEDIUM
