DOMINANT ANGLE
The United States is gauging the first round of the Brazilian election in light of the wave of victories of candidates allied to Trump in Latin America, and the upset of polls that had Lula winning.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
With 99.8% of votes counted, Bolsonaro has just over 56 million votes against 53.7 million for Lula (CBS News); Fox News reports 47.2% against 44.9% at 99%.
- 02
Lula accuses the Trump administration of having sought to influence the election through tariffs, visa withdrawal, and sanctions (CBS News).
- 03
Trump's allies have recently won in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras, and Peru (CBS News); Bloomberg mentions a strengthening of American primacy in the Americas.
ANALYSIS
Washington, October 5, 2026. The US media is treating the first round of the Brazilian election on Sunday, October 4, as a continental as well as national shockwave. Fox News headlines with Flávio Bolsonaro "winning the first round" while candidates backed by Trump "continue their red wave." According to the channel, with 99% of the votes counted, he leads Lula 47.2% to 44.9% in a race where the incumbent president was "widely expected" to win. Fox talks of a "spectacular failure of the polls": most gave Lula a single-digit lead. It details Bolsonaro's scores in the three largest states, including São Paulo (52% to 38%) and Rio (53% to 39%), while Lula dominates the Northeast.
CBS News sticks to the numbers from the electoral court: just over 56 million votes for Bolsonaro versus 53.7 million for Lula, with 99.8% of the ballots counted. Neither of the two reaches the required 50%, hence a second round on October 25. CBS quotes Bolsonaro: "Brazil wants change" and "it's the end of the Workers' Party era." Lula, 80, who is aiming for a fourth non-consecutive term, judges the result "unexpected" and promises: "Tomorrow, we start a new campaign."
NPR puts the election in the continuity of 2022, "a replay" of the duel where Lula had narrowly beaten Jair Bolsonaro, now sentenced to 27 years in prison, served under house arrest. The radio notes a clear shift to the right in the country, the Bolsonaro camp succeeding everywhere.
The American dimension is omnipresent. CBS recalls that Trump's allies have won in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras, and Peru. Lula accuses the US administration of having tried to influence the vote through tariffs, the withdrawal of the visa of the Brazilian ambassador, and sanctions against officials and a Supreme Court judge; the White House had not responded to the request for comment. Bloomberg writes that a Bolsonaro victory would accelerate Trump's effort to "reaffirm American primacy" over the Americas.
ABC News, on the eve of the election, highlighted another issue: the Amazon, whose deforestation has increased by about 60% under Jair Bolsonaro and is at its lowest in over ten years under Lula, but whose protection remained "largely absent" from the campaign.
