DOMINANT ANGLE
London is interpreting a first round that defies the polls: the Bolsonarist right, strong in Congress, is the favourite going into the next round, while Lula is forced to relaunch his campaign.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
With 99.9% of the votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro obtains 47% (56.1 million) against 45.1% (53.8 million) for Lula; runoff on October 25 (The Guardian, The Independent).
- 02
34 of the 54 elected senators are right-wing or far-right; Tarcísio de Freitas is reelected in São Paulo and Michelle Bolsonaro enters the Senate (The Guardian).
- 03
Jair Bolsonaro serves a 27-year sentence for attempted coup; an AI avatar supported his son during the campaign launch (BBC).
ANALYSIS
London, 5 October 2026. The British press is reporting a first round that has swung to the right. According to The Guardian and The Independent, with 99.9% of ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has secured 47% of the vote (56.1 million) against 45.1% (53.8 million) for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80. Neither of the two has achieved a majority: the second round will take place on 25 October.
The Guardian believes that the senator "is entering the second round as a strong favourite", carried by the probable transfer of votes from other right-wing candidates, Ronaldo Caiado (2.1%) and Renan Santos (2.2%). The newspaper notes an extreme right that is "stronger than expected": Tarcísio de Freitas re-elected governor of São Paulo, Michelle and Carlos Bolsonaro elected senators, Jair Renan elected deputy. Of the 54 elected senators, 34 are from the right or far right.
The Independent emphasizes the mechanics of the count: the southern states, favourable to Bolsonaro, have released their results faster than the north-east, Lula's stronghold. It highlights that the Liberal Party has the largest number of elected governors, senators, and federal deputies, putting it in a position of strength. The campaign, it writes, has been dominated by corruption scandals, economic concerns, and accusations of American interference.
The BBC, the day before, saw a tight vote, with a two-point gap in its poll aggregator, and recalled that Lula had opposed "democracy" and "barbarism". It puts the vote into a regional context: a Bolsonaro victory would extend the successes of right-wing candidates aligned with Donald Trump, while a Lula victory would complicate relations with Washington. It also recalls that Jair Bolsonaro is serving 27 years in prison for attempting a coup, while still influencing the campaign, even up to an AI-generated avatar during the launch of his son's candidacy.
In terms of reactions, Flávio Bolsonaro speaks of "the end of an era" for the Workers' Party. Lula, in São Paulo, evokes "a lesson in Brazilian democracy" and notes that "the result is often unexpected". The articles provided do not cover the market reaction.
