DOMINANT ANGLE
Lisbon is first taken aback by the surprise: a bolsonarism that the polls had not seen coming, with Lula struggling, and a second round set for October 25.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by about 47.14% to 45.03% with 99.45% of precincts counted; runoff on October 25 (Jornal Económico).
- 02
The Liberal Party elects 19 senators and will have 28 seats out of 81, the largest bench in the Senate (RTP Notícias).
- 03
Lula wins with 52.45% against 38.57%, but Faro votes for Bolsonaro and voter abstention reaches 62% of registered voters (SAPO, Observador).
ANALYSIS
Lisbon, October 5, 2026. In the Portuguese press, the first round of the Brazilian election on Sunday, October 4, is seen as a political upset. L'Observador writes that "quase nenhuma sondagem previa a onda": with its founder detained, Bolsonarism "fez uma prova de vida" and is preparing to govern. Flávio Bolsonaro comes in first with around 47% of the vote against 45% for Lula; Jornal Económico gives 47.14% against 45.03% with 99.45% of the sections counted, and specifies that neither Quaest nor Datafolha had predicted this lead.
The story of the evening is followed hour by hour. Flávio Bolsonaro had over 51% at the beginning of the count, before losing ground with the arrival of votes from the Northeast, a bastion of the left, according to Jornal Económico and SAPO. According to L'Observador, Lula needs to find around 2.3 million votes and faces a precedent: no candidate who came in second in the first round has won the second. The PT records its worst first-round result since 2002.
Portugal is emphasizing the parliamentary and family dimension. RTP Notícias indicates that the Liberal Party has elected 19 senators and will have the largest bench, 28 seats out of 81. Four members of the Bolsonaro family are elected: Michelle Bolsonaro to the Senate for the Federal District, Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, Jair Renan and Renato to the Chamber. RTP also links the campaign to the crisis of the Supreme Court and the Banco Master scandal.
The speeches are quoted. Flávio Bolsonaro: "Está decretado o fim da era do PT". Lula admits to having thought he would win in the first round and talks about a second round as the "prova dos nove". RTP reports the congratulations of Javier Milei, who speaks of a "eleição histórica frente ao comunista Lula", and of María Corina Machado.
A national aspect specific to Portugal: 134,797 Brazilians were registered to vote, a record, over 60% more than in 2022 according to L'Observador. Lula won in Lisbon (53.51%) and Porto (52.49%), Flávio Bolsonaro in Faro (48.88%). In total, Lula wins in Portugal with 52.45% against 38.57%, according to SAPO and Expresso, but abstention reaches 62% according to L'Observador, well above the Brazilian rate.
SOURCES (4)
- ObservadorMEDIUM
- SAPO NotíciasMEDIUM
- Jornal EconómicoMEDIUM
- RTP NotíciasMEDIUM
