DOMINANT ANGLE
Budapest is first taking note of the electoral surprise: Flávio Bolsonaro is defying polls that favored Lula and has become the favorite for a second round set for October 25.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
According to Telex, with 99% of ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.03% and Lula 45.16%, resulting in a runoff on October 25.
- 02
444 reports that pre-election polls gave Lula a lead of about three points and quotes Robert Muggah (Igarapé Institute): the institutes greatly underestimated Bolsonaro.
- 03
HVG notes that most Latin American countries have elected right-wing presidents close to Trump and that the runoff will determine if Brazil follows.
ANALYSIS
Budapest, October 5, 2026. The same scenario is being reported by Telex, 444, and HVG: right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has won the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, but without reaching the necessary 50%. The second round will take place on October 25.
The figures vary depending on the degree of vote counting. Telex, which relies on the BBC, gives 47.03% against 45.16% for Lula with 99% of the ballots counted. HVG cites 47.24% against 44.91% at 98.81%. 444 rounds to 47% and 45%.
The surprise is the common thread. The campaign's polls gave Lula a slight lead, of about three points according to 444. This site quotes analyst Robert Muggah, from the Igarapé Institute, interviewed by Reuters: the institutes have "substantially underestimated" the support for Bolsonaro. Lula, 80, acknowledged that the result took him by surprise. "I admit, I was convinced of winning in the first round," he said, according to Telex. He added: "We are in extra time," and promised a new campaign starting Monday.
The Hungarian press believes Bolsonaro is better placed for the next round. Telex and HVG note that several eliminated candidates represented a right-wing alternative, whose votes can be transferred to him. His Liberal Party should also obtain the most governors, senators, and deputies, and therefore the greatest influence in Congress.
HVG puts the election in a regional context: most Latin American countries have elected right-wing presidents, closer to Donald Trump, and the second round will say whether Brazil follows or if the left retains power. Lula had presented the issue as a choice between democracy and "barbarism".
444 is the only one to detail the judicial aspect. Jair Bolsonaro is serving 27 years in prison for attempting a coup. Flávio Bolsonaro was himself convicted this summer for lobbying in Washington in favor of his father. An investigation for suspected money laundering, related to the Banco Master case, is ongoing; he denies any wrongdoing. 444 specifies that Trump has not officially supported any candidate, but he received Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House and publicly greeted him. The latter spoke of the end of the Workers' Party era.
