DOMINANT ANGLE
Paris is first surprised: a first round that upsets the polls and puts the son of Jair Bolsonaro in a position to regain power against a Lula forced to relaunch his campaign.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
Flávio Bolsonaro gets 47.06% of the vote against 45.12% for Lula in the first round on October 4, according to Le Monde and RFI; runoff on October 25.
- 02
Polls had Lula ahead by about three points in the first round, according to L'Express; Lula calls the result "unexpected".
- 03
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempted coup; Donald Trump did not support Flávio but his influence weighed in, according to BFMTV.
ANALYSIS
Paris, October 5, 2026. The French media are portraying the result of Sunday, October 4, as a political surprise. According to Le Monde and RFI, far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, garnered 47.06% of the vote against 45.12% for Lula, after the counting of nearly all the ballots. The second round will take place on October 25.
L'Express notes that opinion polls credited Lula with a lead of around three points. RFI, citing its correspondent in São Paulo, points out that the outgoing president "led the race from the start" before the gap closed, and that Flávio Bolsonaro benefited from the useful vote: the four other right-wing candidates were largely outdistanced. HuffPost France recalls that the initial estimates gave him 51% against 40%, before a tightening as the night wore on.
Reactions are being quoted with care. Lula judges the result "unexpected" and says: "The match is going to start. We are in extra time." Flávio Bolsonaro says he is "very satisfied" and thanks his voters for a "vote of confidence for change". Le Monde adds that Lula wants to convince the 30 million abstentionists, or 21% of the electorate, a record. In Rio, the Workers' Party meeting turned into a "gloomy rally".
The French press is emphasizing the polarization. BFMTV and 20 Minutes write that the reduced gap "shows that the largest country in Latin America remains deeply polarized". Sud Ouest and 20 Minutes also mention, for the second round, an a priori advantage for the senator, who could recover votes from smaller candidates. Politologist Robert Muggah, quoted by L'Express, estimates that the polling institutes "completely got it wrong".
The international dimension is present but secondary. BFMTV recalls that Donald Trump did not give his support to Flávio Bolsonaro, but that his influence weighed on the campaign, with customs duties and sanctions since the trial of Jair Bolsonaro. A victory for the latter would link Brazil to the conservative wave in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru. L'Express adds that the financial markets could welcome this result.
The campaign is described as being dominated by the cost of living, corruption, and insecurity. Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup, is ineligible and under house arrest. Sud Ouest mentions an investigation for corruption and money laundering targeting the candidate regarding the financing of a film dedicated to his father.
SOURCES (5)
- 20 MinutesMEDIUM
- L'ExpressMEDIUM
- BFMTVMEDIUM
