DOMINANT ANGLE
Bern first retains the portrait of a country cut in two: evangelicals, desire for change and fear of Washington's influence are shaping a highly unpredictable runoff.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
According to Le Temps, Flávio Bolsonaro obtains 47.03% against 45.16% for Lula, based on nearly final results published by Folha de São Paulo; the second round takes place on October 25.
- 02
SRF indicates that evangelicals represent about a third of the electorate and that Flávio Bolsonaro courted them with a speech on Christian values.
- 03
SRF reports that Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro were elected to the Senate, where the PL strengthens its position without a majority of its own.
ANALYSIS
Berne, October 5, 2026. For SRF as for Le Temps, Sunday's first round on October 4 confirms a neck-and-neck race, with a slight advantage for the far-right candidate. The figures vary depending on the moment of the count: SRF initially cites 47.4% for Flávio Bolsonaro against 44.6% for Lula after 97% of the ballots, then around 47.18% against 44.99%. Le Temps, which relies on the quasi-definitive results published by Folha de São Paulo, gives 47.03% against 45.16%. Neither of the two reaches an absolute majority, and the second round is set for October 25.
The SRF narrative puts society at the forefront. The channel writes that the result "shows how deeply divided South America's largest democracy is". Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has bet on Christian values and courted evangelicals, who represent about a third of the electorate. The media notes that not all of his voters are convinced: a voter from São Paulo says she chose Bolsonaro out of a desire for change, with no candidate really pleasing her.
On the other hand, Lula, 80, who is running for a fourth term, has presented himself as a defender of democracy. SRF reports the fear of his supporters about Flávio Bolsonaro's proximity to Donald Trump. A voter declares that he does not want "Donald Trump to dictate what we do", even if it means accepting a fourth term for Lula.
SRF also details the economic background: under Lula, unemployment has decreased, the minimum wage has been raised, and Amazon deforestation has decreased. However, the increase in the cost of living, a public debt of over 82% of GDP, and the scandal of the liquidated Banco Master bank weigh in. Flávio Bolsonaro promises a leaner state, budget cuts, a tougher line against crime, and an amnesty for his father, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup.
Le Temps puts the election into the memory of 2022. The polls announced a three-point gap, or the margin of error, and the Liberal Party candidate narrowly missed the required majority with 49.93% half an hour after the polling stations closed. But the comeback of Lula observed four years ago has not been repeated: "The sense of déjà vu stops there".
SRF finally emphasizes that the Bolsonaro family will remain influential regardless of the outcome: Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro are entering the Senate, where the PL is strengthening its position without obtaining an absolute majority.
