DOMINANT ANGLE
Rome is reeling from the surprise of the first round, which upended the polls: Flávio Bolsonaro, the "Trump-like candidate", has emerged as the favourite for the runoff on 25 October, and the right is gaining ground in the Senate.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
Flávio Bolsonaro gets 47.14% against 45.03% for Lula according to ANSA (47.03% against 45.16% for Adnkronos); runoff on October 25.
- 02
According to ANSA, with over 85% of the ballots counted, the Liberal Party is leading in 20 of the 54 Senate seats up for grabs and could reach 28 senators out of 81.
- 03
La Repubblica notes that four of the eight candidates from the Bolsonaro clan are elected, including Michelle Bolsonaro, and that Lula, the favorite, is left to pursue.
ANALYSIS
Rome, October 5, 2026. For ANSA, Flávio Bolsonaro "beats Lula in the first round and launches himself as the favorite" for the runoff on October 25, which will designate the fortieth president of Brazil. The agencies give slightly different figures depending on the time of the count: 47.14% against 45.03% for ANSA, 47.03% against 45.16% for Adnkronos, or about two and a half million votes apart. The other candidates, all from the center right, total around 12%. Abstention is low, participation reaches 79%, null votes 2.93%, and blank votes 1.84%.
La Repubblica emphasizes the surprise: "Lula was the favorite in the first round, he finds himself pursuing". Adnkronos recalls that the Datafolha poll gave the leader of the Workers' Party 45% against 42% for the senator. The newspaper describes a "clan": out of eight candidates linked to the family, four are elected, including Michelle Bolsonaro, presented as the "champion of Pentecostals". The question was whether the name could surpass Jair Bolsonaro and become a brand of the South American far right; the answer, the newspaper writes, has arrived "without any doubt".
ANSA details the parliamentary aspect. With more than 85% of the ballots counted, the Liberal Party would be in the lead in 20 of the 54 Senate seats at stake, ahead of the MDB (7) and the PT (6). With the senators elected in 2022, it would reach 28 seats out of 81 and become the first group in the upper house, which would strengthen the conservative camp in political and institutional battles. Adnkronos speaks of a "hard blow" for Lula, who is aiming for a fourth term at nearly 81 years old.
Sunday, October 4, had been marked, according to ANSA, by a climate of "absolute tranquility" despite polarization: 18 arrests in Piauí during a federal police operation against vote buying, and 421 electronic urns replaced. Lula had presented the choice as a duel between "democracy" and "barbarism"; Flávio Bolsonaro had judged that "Brazil cannot support four more years".
The international dimension appears in the background. Adnkronos writes that a Bolsonaro victory would link the main Latin American power to the regional right-wing turn, supported by Donald Trump, whom Lula had invited not to "interfere". An expert from the University of São Paulo, interviewed by La Repubblica, predicts a tense second round, with low blows and possible new scandals. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup.
SOURCES (3)
- AdnkronosMEDIUM
