DOMINANT ANGLE
Canberra is first measuring the personal vulnerability of Friedrich Merz, whose popularity rating would plummet to 10%, rather than the ideological breakthrough of the AfD, while the "firewall" against the far right continues to hold.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
The AfD is ahead in Mecklenburg-Pomerania with around 37% of the vote according to exit polls, ahead of the SPD at 35.5% (ABC News, SBS)
- 02
Friedrich Merz's CDU would only get 5.5% in this state, barely crossing the 5% threshold, its worst regional result since 1949 (SBS News)
- 03
In Berlin, Die Linke is ahead with 24.5% ahead of the CDU at 20%, while the AfD is gaining ground at 16% (SBS News)
ANALYSIS
Canberra, September 21, 2026. The Australian press is treating the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's latest electoral setback as a domestic governance crisis rather than a foreign policy event. According to exit polls relayed by ABC News and SBS, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came out on top in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday with around 37% of the vote, ahead of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 35.5%; Chancellor Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) would have obtained only 5.5%, barely clearing the 5% threshold required to sit in the regional parliament, according to SBS. This is the CDU's worst result in the state since 1949.
In Berlin, where an election was also held on the same day, the far-left party Die Linke came out on top with 24.5% of the vote, ahead of the CDU at 20%; the AfD made gains to reach 16%, according to SBS News, which notes that this is the first time Die Linke has dominated an election in the capital, where it promises to nationalize housing owned by corporate landlords and cap rents. "It's a disaster," Merz acknowledged in front of cameras after the release of the exit polls, while indicating that he intended to stay in office and pursue his reform program, reports ABC News.
Australian media are linking this result to a series of five German regional elections that have, according to PerthNow, exposed widespread public frustration with Merz's coalition, whose personal popularity rating does not exceed 10%, according to The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Two weeks earlier, in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD had already reached nearly 44% while the CDU collapsed to around 17%, recalls PerthNow, fueling rumors of a change in chancellor within the conservative party.
The Australian coverage emphasizes the maintenance of the firewall established in 2018 between traditional parties and the AfD, which continues to exclude the far-right party from power despite top scores in three states, notes ABC News. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the incumbent Social Democrat Manuela Schwesig had hoped, according to PerthNow, for a last-minute surge against the AfD, which has dominated national polls for months without ever accessing a coalition due to a lack of partners.
